On 22 February Boris Johnson revealed a roadmap out of lockdown. Is it a plan the coach and bus industry in England can use?
In February the government published its COVID-19 response setting out a ‘roadmap’ to ease lockdown restrictions in England.
The four-step plan creates a route back to normality, starting with the return of schools on 8 March with further stages predicted at least every five weeks throughout April, May and June. All restrictions are set to be eased by 21 June.
The restrictions will be lifted only if four tests are satisfied: Vaccine rollout and efficacy must remain successful, infection rates must not surge, and risk assessments must not be affected by new variants.
The government said that by 8 March, everyone in the top four vaccine priority cohorts will have received their first dose of the vaccine. The stay at home order is set to end on 29 March, when schools break up for Easter. The indoor hospitality sector will not reopen until at least 17 May, which ranges from entertainment venues such as cinemas to outdoor sporting venues with capacities up to 10,000 people.
routeone has spoken with coach and bus operators to discover how the industry has reacted to the roadmap in England.
Bus: Time to grow again
Transdev Blazefield CEO Alex Hornby was pleased to receive news of the roadmap, but has approached it with “some trepidation”. While he is looking forward to clarity in returning to a sense of normality, from a business point of view he believes care must be taken in how operators react to the announcement.
The company has responded by building its own mirrored roadmap to ensure its network and timetables match the reopening of the economy. This plays into Transdev’s desire to make bus a more attractive proposition post-pandemic. “From a macro, long-term level, we want to make sure that we build back better than what we had before, and we are trying to see opportunities and advantages from the position that we find ourselves in. We’ve almost reset ourselves as an industry, so that’s a great opportunity to look in the mirror and make sure we don’t allow decisions to be made that go against buses and users.”
Transdev has already announced the first step for when schools return on 8 March, when capacity on the network was increased to accommodate school journeys. Notably, Alex says that in September that area of the business was the only one bigger than the year before. “That’s clearly a market that bounced back quicker than others, so we need to make sure we meet that head-on and cater for that demand.”
April will see extra services laid on to accommodate the reopening of shops and businesses, and the company’s aim by May is to be in a position to run normal services. That will be done in line with continual consultation with local authorities and the Department for Transport, making sure the latter’s expectations are adhered to. “That process has gone very well up to now. While it is unlikely that CBSSG will go any time soon, I still think we have a responsibility to make sure we put the best service on that we can and grow the market. Together we should put ourselves in the position of being a growth industry again, not managing decline and low demand.”
While difficult to predict, Alex believes continued partnership working between local authorities and operators in the bus industry will foster that growth: ”We’ve all proven that that works well. We’ve certainly embraced that. A framework that motivates both local authorities and bus operators to play to their strengths in terms of what responsibilities we have and the strengths and knowledge and skills that each of them brings. I’d like to think bus operators can continue to be allowed to innovate and continue to focus on growth while local authorities can do their bit to help speed buses up, put measures in to help our punctuality, and as a combined force we are doing our bit to promote bus use and ultimately grow demand. If we focus on the things we agree on, that should be a very healthy environment for us to operate in.”
Uncertainty remains over roadmap messaging
Despite the positivity, Transdev remains unsure about how the government’s roadmap specifically relates to buses, in particular face coverings and capacity on board. “If those two things remain, and I haven’t seen anything written down to suggest that they won’t remain, we will be nowhere near back to normal in the way other sectors may be. That’s what is still unclear from an operational and customer point of view. We want to remain safe, but at the same time, we want to take advantage of the summer ahead and have a programme assembled to provide leisure opportunities on our buses. It’s a bit difficult to prepare for that if we are still running at half capacity. It would be good to get that clarity, especially if we are to operate commercially without government support.”
And yet the biggest challenge that remains, according to Alex, will be reversing the perception around bus use thrust upon operators last April. Transdev’s network is currently operating around 85% regular mileage, serving just under 30% of its usual numbers, and those passenger numbers are “highly unlikely” to recover within the dates set by government. It is therefore vital to reverse the messaging that has resulted in those depressed numbers and provide a sustained period without restrictions to bring back confidence.
“We and many others out there are adept at producing strong communications to get people on buses, but we need everybody to be saying it, including government, in a creative and attractive way,” Alex says. He predicts that commuters and concessionary pass holders will be the most difficult markets to claw back. And messaging has to go beyond a campaign now; key influencers should set an example. “We certainly live life in our business by setting that example. I’m a committed bus user. It’s that kind of example I’d like to see from government ministers and even celebrities where we can. This shouldn’t just be a message. It should be catered to local people and address the issues that prevent people from using the bus.”
Another year lost for coach?
Things remain murky for the coach sector. One Director has described his reaction to the lockdown roadmap as “despondent”.
Paul Lynn, Director of J&B Travel in Leeds, has made it clear that the roadmap does not cater to the coach industry, and that it may spell another disastrous summer for operators.
Three major concerns have destroyed prospects for a viable coach season according to Paul. The first echoes the same concerns of Alex Hornby, in that public confidence remains low and messaging needs to change. Like Alex, he agrees that this remains a bigger issue than social distancing, and simply “allowing businesses to reopen on 21 June will not change attitudes when it comes to shared transport.”
Paul has witnessed a peculiar aversion to coach and bus. He reveals that J&B provided a flight diversion service in November for a well-known airline. 20 passengers refused to board the coach despite having just left an aeroplane. That is also despite every coach being equipped with an air filtration system.
Dates and a lack of clarity around capacity on vehicles poses the second major concern. Conversations with North of England Confederation of Passenger Transport Regional Manager Andrew McGuinness reveal those questions have yet to be answered. “If we don’t know how many passengers we can carry by 21 June, the earliest we can start viable bookings is going to be the middle of July,” Paul suggests. “Schools finish in West Yorkshire on 26 July, so what season will the industry have had? The real issue for coaches is going to be in September, when the furlough scheme finishes and the loans have to be repaid. I predict another round of mass closures.”
While J&B has operated school transport through the pandemic, the West Yorkshire Combined Authority asked the operator to join certain school runs so they were reduced down to nine. But while home-to-school work allows J&B to cover costs, it is the additional work that helps the operator turn profit. Realistically it means that J&B will only begin to recover in September when winter sports, university work and educational trips return to provide normality. “Unless operators are doing their own holidays or tours for other companies the industry might be lucky, come 17 May, to get a reasonable three or four months of work. We’re in a very strong position still, but if we don’t start seeing work come by September and October, we will likely have to sell vehicles.”
The third issue is to ensure messaging reaches venues. The day trip and tour market will not recover fully if the leisure and hospitality sector is reluctant to receive groups.
One operator biting the bullet is Jackie Withey of Hythe-based Waterside Tours. In response to the roadmap she is restarting her day trip programme from 17 May and her holiday programme from 21 June, focusing on UK programmes. “I’ve looked at the step two of the roadmap on the 12 April. The rule of six did not apply to transport of multiple groups on organised coach trips and there is no reason to think it will be any different now. But there is still the two-metre rule, and minimised travel rules. If you try to hedge your bets, you need to go with the 17 May to be on the safe side,” she says.
For Jackie, the lockdown plan has at the very least provided some structure for the sector. The phones are ringing with enquiries, but a slow and cautious approach will likely be the new standard for many operators until more clarity arrives from government.
